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OCTOBER 4,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

THE COUNTDOWN – The next big event in the major motion picture, "Here Comes Brett," will occur tomorrow (Friday) morning or early afternoon, when the Senate votes on whether to impose cloture, which in this case would mean the start of a 30-hour waiting period that would end, late Saturday, in a final vote for or against confirmation of Judge Kavanaugh. 

WHERE IT STANDS – Exactly where it stood last night, with one exception.  Hopeless Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp, running for re-election in the pro-Kavanaugh state of North Dakota, announced that she's a "no" on Kavanaugh, which will make her even more unpopular in her state.  Polls show her far behind, with really no chance of re-election, and some believed she would vote for the judge to boost her standing.  She apparently calculated that she'd rather satisfy her Democratic base, so she'll have someone to have lunch with in her impending retirement. 

The other holdouts who will decide Kavanaugh's fate are still held out, even though they know everything they're gonna.  Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, is doing a Hamlet, although reports say she tilts toward the judge.  Lisa Murkowski, semi-Republican of Alaska, is similarly Shakespearean.  She has given no hint.  Jeff Flake of Arizona, leaving the Senate at the end of his term, has hinted at a "yes," but the hint is only a whisper.  Joe Manchin, Dem of heavily Trump West Virginia, wants to read more.   Apparently there are some good novels in the Senate reading room.

CLOSE CALL – Those with heart conditions got a scare earlier tonight when it was announced that Republican Senator Steve Daines of Montana would possibly miss the confirmation vote because his daughter is getting married Saturday night.  Apparently Senator Daines received an appropriate appeal, including a discussion of how much he valued his knees, and hurriedly called Judge Kavanaugh to assure him he'd be there for the vote.

AN ANGRY GRASSLEY – Senator Chuck Grassley, chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, is generally mild, but today he called out members of the press for bias, something I've never seen him do before.  Good for Chuck.  The behavior of the press in the Kavanaugh case has been even more disgraceful than usual.  The press has acted as a cheering section for Professor Ford and the Democrats, and a serial harasser of Judge Kavanaugh.  I do believe most Americans are on to this.  I wonder how long they'll continue to watch some news channels and read some newspapers.  The pressis not doing the job the Founders intended, and the public must make the market work and pull the plug on some of these propaganda outlets, while not restricting press freedom. 

We now await the cloture vote.  We also await any last-minute surprises, which are likely to come.  Stand by for a last-minute mystery witness, who personally saw Brett Kavanaugh do strange things with Mickey Mouse.

October 4, 2018       Permalink 

ALL KAV ALL THE TIME – AT 12:52 P.M. ET:  The senators are reading the FBI background report on Judge Kavanaugh.   It appears that, not only is there no smoking gun that can hurt him, there isn't even a bow and arrow.  Or a flying paper clip.  From Fox: 

Fresh from viewing the much-anticipated FBI supplemental report on Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles Grassley declared nothing in the document changed his mind and that it was time for the Senate to vote on the jurist's high-court confirmation.

“I’ve now received a committee staff briefing on the FBI’s supplement to Judge Kavanaugh’s background investigation file," the Iowa lawmaker said Thursday. "There’s nothing in it that we didn’t already know. These uncorroborated accusations have been unequivocally and repeatedly rejected by Judge Kavanaugh, and neither the Judiciary Committee nor the FBI could locate any third parties who can attest to any of the allegations.

“It’s time to vote," Grassley added. "I’ll be voting to confirm Judge Kavanaugh.”

Grassley was the first senator to view the document, which was ordered by the White House after allegations of decades-old sexual misconduct emerged against Kavanaugh after his nomination hearing before Grassley's committee had ended last week. Other members of the committee and the full Senate will be permitted to view the documents in a secure facility later today.

The FBI interviewed nine potential witnesses in search of possible corroboration of Christine Ford's claim the now 53-year-old Kavanaugh forcibly groped her when they were teenagers. Although the report is not expected to be made public, potential witnesses named by Ford previously said they had no knowledge of the party where she claims the attack occurred.

COMMENT:  So far, so good.  But we still have not heard definitively from Flake, Collins, and Murkowski, the three Republicans who are publicly uncommitted.  Nor have we heard from Democrats from red states.

The next big event, barring public announcements from the holdouts, will come tomorrow, possibly early, when the Senate will vote to cut off debate, an act known as cloture.  If it passes, a 30-hour waiting period will go into effect.  The Senate could vote on confirmation as early as late Saturday.

If Cavanaugh is confirmed, I wonder what kind of swearing-in he'll have.  Considering the circumstances, and knowing Trump, I think the president will go big.

October 4, 2018        Permalink

PRESIDENT AT 50% – AT 12:08 P.M. ET:  The latest Rasmussen tracker shows Mr. Trump continuing to rise.   He's out there fighting, and it makes a difference.  From Rasmussen:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove. 

The latest figures include 37% who Strongly Approve of the way Trump is performing and 40% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -3.

COMMENT:  The president has hit this mark before in Rasmussen, but hasn't touched it recently.  I think you'll see, in the next month, the longest sustained political effort by a president in our memory.  I wouldn't be shocked if Mr. Trump rose into the lower fifties.

October 4,  2018     Permalink

OCTOBER 3,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

NO MORE NO NEWS DAYS – It appears that the no-news news cycle is over.  The FBI has completed its probe into Judge Kavanaugh, the Dems are already whining that it went on for less than a decade, Majority Leader McConnell has invoked cloture, and a vote on the nomination by the full Senate is probable for Sunday.  Then we'll know.  I have to believe that McConnell has the votes, but that is only a belief.  I haven't seen a true tabulation on the battery-powered calculator.

THE REPORT –  Senators will start reading the FBI report tomorrow (Thursday) morning.  Apparently, few copies will actually exist and senators will read them in a secure area.   All we are getting right now are vague leaks about the contents, and we cannot check their accuracy.  I do fear that Democrats will distort what is there, knowing that the people and the press have no way to correct what is said.  That job will be done by Republicans, if at all.

THE HOLDOUTS – Unless there is a surprise somewhere, the nomination will be decided by four or five holdouts.  Republican holdouts are Jeff Flake of Arizona, an unstable character who believes he thinks deep thoughts; Lisa Murkowski of Alaska; and Susan Collins of Maine.  Collins, who generally returns to the Republican tent after making some noises, could affect the votes of the other two.  Among the Democrats, Joe Manchin of strongly pro-Trump West Virginia is still out, as is Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, who is badly behind in a re-election race is a very pro-Kavanaugh state.  There may be a few other persuadables.   Republican eccentric Ben Sasse of Nebraska could also emerge as a wild card.  When McConnell's cloture resolution is actually voted on for approval this Friday, we will probably get an indication of how the final confirmation vote will go.  If cloture is approved by the Senate, debate would then be cut off after 30 hours, and the Senate could render a final nomination vote on Sunday. 

THE PRESIDENT – As usual, President Trump did more harm than good by publicly mocking Professor Ford in a speech.  He was roundly criticized, even by Republicans.  Lindsey Graham advised the president, correctly, to stay out of it.

THE ACCUSER – How sad.  I feel, as others do, that Professor Ford has been manipulated and used as a tool by the Democrats.  Her lawyer, Debra Katz (no relation to me, I hope) is a party activist.  Ford would have been better off with a competent lawyer with no political motivation.  Now Katz is complaining that Ford wasn't interviewed during this week's FBI extended background check on Judge Kavanaugh.  That's a bit deceptive.   Ford gave hours of testimony, and would only be interviewed if she could answer questions the FBI felt needed to be asked.

THE PUBLIC – There appears to be a groundswell of support for Judge Kavanaugh, based largely on the question of how he's been treated.  No matter how the vote goes, the president could start calling the upcoming midterms the "Kavanaugh election." 

October 3, 2018       Permalink     

A BUDDING STORY – AT 10:20 A.M. ET:  And it involves Professor Ford and whether she committed perjury at last week's hearing.  Be careful with this.  We are reporting charges and concerns.  She hasn't been convicted of anything.  From the New York Post:   

An ex-boyfriend of Christine Blasey Ford reportedly wrote a letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee contradicting her testimony last Thursday on polygraphs — prompting Sen. Chuck Grassley to raise doubts about her truthfulness.

The man, who says he dated Ford from 1992 to 1998, wrote in the letter — obtained by Fox News — that he once saw Ford help ease the nerves of a friend preparing to take a polygraph by ­“explaining in detail what to ­expect” and how they work.

During last Thursday’s hearing, Arizona sex-crimes prosecutor Rachel Mitchell asked Ford if she had ever talked with anyone other than her lawyers about “how to take a polygraph.” Ford said “Never.”

The man, whose name was not released, also said that during his relationship with Ford she never mentioned Brett Kavanaugh or her experience as a victim of sexual assault.

In a letter late Tuesday, Grassley (R-Iowa) asked Ford’s lawyers for the polygraph results, saying the ex’s claim “raises specific concerns about the reliability of [Ford’s] polygraph-examination results.”

COMMENT:  The question might also be asked as to why an honest person would help another person take a polygraph?  This is a legitimate area of inquiry, as are many of Professor Ford's odd answers, and we await the outcome.

October 3, 2018       Permalink

PRESIDENT UP – AT 10:08 A.M. ET:  It's only a point or two, but the trend is upward for President Trump as he celebrates our new North American trade agreement and faces down the Democrat McCarthyites attacking Judge Kavanaugh.  From Rasmussen: 

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 49% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove. 

The latest figures include 36% who Strongly Approve of the president is performing and 41% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -5.

COMMENT:  Oh, I'd like to see it over 50% by the end of the week.  The president might single-handedly save his party in this election year.

We are trying to get more polling results from the states.  It's not always possible to get late information.  Polling is expensive, and state polls aren't taken that often, even when an election is pending.  The election is a month away, with enormous stakes.

October 3, 2018     Permalink